Summary
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call Summary Tuesday, February 03, 2026, 5:00 PM IST
Event Participants
Executives 4 Ashwani Gupta (CEO & Whole-Time Director), D. Muthukumaran (CFO), Divij Anil Taneja (CEO, Logistics), Rahul Agarwal (Head of IR & ESG)
Analysts 11 Achal Lohade, Ankita Shah, Anshul Agarwal, Kalpit Sabhaya, Ketan Jain, Manish Somaiya, Nidhi Shah, Parash Jain, Priyankar Biswas, Pulkit Patni, Rajarshi Maitra, Sumit Kishore
Financials & KPIs
| Metric | Reported | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹1,000 crores (Intl. Ports) | Represents a run rate of ₹4,000-5,000 crores annually; up significantly YoY. |
| Logistics Revenue | ₹1,121 crores | +62% YoY; driven by “asset heavy, asset light, asset zero” strategy. |
| EBITDA Guidance (Revised) | ₹22,800 crores | Revised upward by ₹800 crores for FY26 due to operational excellence and NQXT acquisition. |
| Leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA) | 1.8x | Maintained under check despite the AUD 700 million debt for NQXT acquisition. |
| Domestic Container Share | 45.6% | Highest ever 9-month container market share in India. |
| Operational Efficiency (Vizhinjam) | 30 GCR | Gross Crane Rate (lifts per hour) achieved within 8 months of operation. |
Geographic & Segment Commentary
- Domestic Ports: Delivered record 9-month container share of 45.6%. Realization increased 9% YoY due to a mix of price hikes, favorable cargo mix, and “take-or-pay” charges where volumes were lower but revenue was protected. Mundra remains the flagship, transitioning focus toward container and liquid cargo as thermal coal imports remain flat.
- International Ports: Revenue reached ₹1,000 crores for the quarter. Quarterly volumes stood at 5.4 MMT for Colombo, 2.1 MMT for Haifa, and 3.1 MMT for Tanzania. NQXT (Australia) consolidation begins Jan 1, 2026, contributing ~₹300 crores to Q4 EBITDA.
- Logistics: Revenue grew 62% YoY to ₹1,121 crores. The segment is shifting toward an integrated “port-to-factory” model. While rail container volumes grew 11% YoY, management is targeting sustained double-digit growth despite the commissioning of the Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC).
Company-Specific & Strategic Commentary
- Vizhinjam Phase II Expansion: Announced a ₹16,000 crore investment to expand capacity to 5.7 million TEUs by FY29. The site is positioned as a global transshipment hub with bunkering facilities for LNG in partnership with BPCL.
- Asset Reclassification: Certain dredging assets were moved to a subsidiary (Shantisagar), shifting related revenue/EBITDA to the “Others” segment for tax and structural optimization.
- NQXT Acquisition Structure: Management successfully dissolved $2.54 billion in non-core liabilities associated with the North Queensland Export Terminal (NQXT) within one month of acquisition, leaving only port-related debt on the books.
- Sustainability Benchmarks: APSEZ became the first Indian company in its sector to adopt the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD).
Guidance & Outlook
| Metric | Guidance / Outlook | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| FY29 Revenue | ₹65,500 crores | Reiteration of 5-year plan target based on organic growth and ramp-ups. |
| FY29 EBITDA | ₹36,500 crores | Reiteration of 5-year plan; driven by containerization and international expansion. |
| Cargo Volume (2030) | 1 Billion Metric Tons | To be achieved through 850 MMT domestic and 150 MMT international volumes. |
| NQXT EBITDA | $400 million (Long-term) | Current $230M expected to reach $400M following contract renegotiations in FY28/29. |
Risks & Constraints
| Risk | Context |
|---|---|
| Geopolitical Turmoil | Management cited major international conflict as the sole material threat to FY29 targets, noting that localized issues (e.g., Red Sea) have minimal impact on their scale. |
| Thermal Coal Decline | Imported thermal coal volumes are under pressure due to domestic policy and power plant dynamics, though partially offset by coastal coal growth and “take-or-pay” contracts. |
| Regulatory/Policy Shifts | Changes or pauses in Indian Railways’ GPWIS (General Purpose Wagon Investment Scheme) policy can impact rake utilization and logistics efficiency. |
Q&A Highlights
Impact of Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC)
- Question: Will the DFC take business away from Mundra due to improved connectivity for competitors? (Sumit Kishore)
- Answer: Negligible impact. Mundra maintains a 300-350 km distance advantage (5-6 railway slabs), making it ₹1,000s cheaper per TEU than competitor ports even with DFC efficiency gains. Mundra’s competitiveness is driven by draft and vessel turnaround time (Ashwani Gupta).
Vizhinjam Competitive Positioning
- Question: How will Vizhinjam compete with Colombo on pricing? (Parash Jain)
- Answer: Pricing is a function of supply/demand. Colombo is nearing capacity constraints. Vizhinjam offers superior draft and integrated EXIM services, currently facing no pricing pressure from competitors (Ashwani Gupta).
Financial Consolidation of NQXT
- Question: What is the impact of NQXT on the balance sheet and margins? (Ankita Shah)
- Answer: NQXT operates at ~65% EBITDA margins. Revenue is expected to be ~₹450-500 crores in Q4. While debt was added, the net leverage remains low at 1.8x. Contract resets in FY28/29 will drive absolute EBITDA from $230M to $400M (D. Muthukumaran).
Cargo Mix Diversification
- Question: How much will coal contribute to the total mix in 5 years? (Pulkit Patni)
- Answer: Thermal coal will likely settle at 20-22% of total cargo (down from 30% in FY24). This is a result of container and oil/gas volumes growing at a much faster rate than coal (D. Muthukumaran).
Key Takeaway
APSEZ delivered a robust Q3 FY26, characterized by a significant upward revision of FY26 EBITDA guidance to ₹22,800 crores. The company demonstrated strong momentum across its four pillars, with international port revenue hitting a ₹4,000 crore annual run rate and domestic container market share reaching a record 45.6%. Strategic focus remains on the ₹16,000 crore Vizhinjam Phase II expansion and the integration of NQXT Australia, which bolsters international EBITDA. Despite heavy inorganic investments, the balance sheet remains disciplined with a net leverage of 1.8x. Management reiterated its “Vision 2029” targets of ₹36,500 crores EBITDA, pivoting away from thermal coal toward high-margin container and liquid cargo. The transition of CFO D. Muthukumaran to a Group role and the appointment of Mr. Krishna as his successor marks a planned leadership shift as the company tracks toward its 1 billion metric ton cargo goal by 2030.
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