Adani Power Limited Q3 FY26 Earnings Call Summary

Summary

Adani Power Limited - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call Summary Thursday, January 29, 2026 4:00 PM

Event Participants

Executives Dilip Jha – Chief Financial Officer, Nishit Dave – Head of Investor Relations

Analysts Abhinav Nalawade – ICICI Securities, Aniket Mittal – SBI Mutual Fund, Dhruv Muchhal – HDFC Asset Management, Ishan Verma – Antique Stock Broking, Kalpit Sabhaya – GYR Capital Advisors, Manish Somaiya – Cantor, Mohit Kumar – ICICI Securities, Nikhil Abhyankar – UTI Asset Management, Nikhil Nigania – Bernstein, Shirom Kapur – Jefferies, Sucrit Patil – Eyesight Fintrade

Financials & KPIs

Geographic & Segment Commentary

• Operating Fleet: Total installed capacity stands at 18.15 GW following the Vidarbha acquisition. Over 90% of capacity is now tied under long-term/medium-term PPAs, up from 80% two years ago, to mitigate merchant market volatility.
• Expansion Projects: Execution is progressing on a 23.7 GW expansion program. Mahan Phase-II is 80% complete, while Raipur (44%) and Raigarh (38%) are on track for commissioning from FY27-FY29.
• Godda (Jharkhand-Bangladesh): Q3 revenue stood at ₹2,210 crores with EBITDA of ₹1,092 crores. PLF improved to 68% (from 50% YoY). EBITDA declined YoY due to lower coal price indices affecting energy charges.

Company-Specific & Strategic Commentary

• PPA Portfolio Strengthening: Received Letter of Award for 3,200 MW greenfield project in Assam (Tariff: ₹6.30/kWh) and tied up 570.5 MW in Karnataka (Tariff: ₹5.78/kWh).
• Merchant Strategy: Reduced open capacity exposure to 10% currently, with a long-term target of 3-4%. Focus is on capacity charges (“Availability”) to ensure EBITDA stability regardless of demand.
• Funding & Credit: Raised ₹7,500 crores via AA-rated NCDs (8.0-8.4% coupon) to fund interim capex gaps. Credit rating maintained at AA/Stable despite debt addition.
• Operational Efficiency: Fully operationalized the 600 MW Butibori plant (acquired July 2025) with a 5-year PPA with Maharashtra DISCOM.

Guidance & Outlook

Risks & Constraints

Q&A Highlights

Execution Timelines

• Question: What are the commissioning timelines for Mahan, Raipur, and Raigarh? (Abhinav Nalawade)
• Answer: Korba Phase-II (1.32 GW) and Mahan Phase-II are targeted for next year (FY27). Other units will follow every 6 months, with the cluster completed by mid-FY29. (Dilip Jha/Nishit Dave)

Bangladesh Operations

• Question: Are we allowed to use domestic coal for Godda and what is the status of receivables? (Nikhil Nigania)
• Answer: Modified GoI guidelines now allow export plants to use domestic coal from commercial miners. Ongoing dues from Bangladesh are regular at ~2 months of billing. (Dilip Jha/Nishit Dave)

Funding Strategy

• Question: What is the capex and funding mix for the 3.2 GW Assam project? (Kalpit Sabhaya)
• Answer: Capex is ~₹10 crore per MW. We do not do project-wise financial closure; we fund from a central pool of ₹20,000 cr annual FFO, using NCDs/bank debt only for interim gaps. (Dilip Jha)

Rajasthan PPA Status

• Question: Why has the Rajasthan regulator not approved the 3.2 GW tender? (Aniket Mittal)
• Answer: The regulator questioned if the full 3.2 GW was required at once based on CEA data. The DISCOM is revisiting assumptions to prove higher demand and will re-present. (Nishit Dave)

Key Takeaway

Adani Power delivered a resilient Q3 FY26 despite a flat national power demand environment and lower merchant prices. Power sales grew marginally to 23.6 BUs, while continuing EBITDA stood at ₹4,636 crores. The company is aggressively transitioning toward a contracted-capacity model, with 90% of its 18.15 GW fleet now under PPAs, effectively insulating margins from fuel and market volatility. Strategic highlights include the ₹7,500 crore NCD raise and the securing of major PPAs in Assam and Karnataka at attractive tariffs (~₹5.80-6.30/kWh). With a massive 24 GW expansion pipeline mostly funded via an annual FFO of ~₹20,000 crores, the company aims to reach 42 GW by FY32. While short-term merchant prices and regulatory approvals for specific tenders like Rajasthan remain watch points, the shift toward higher-capacity-charge contracts is expected to improve per-MW profitability as the new units commission starting FY27.