Summary
AGI Greenpac Limited - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call Summary Thursday, January 29, 2026, 4:00 PM
Event Participants
Executives 3 Om Prakash Pandey (CFO), Rajesh Khosla (President & CEO), Sandeep Sikka (Group CFO)
Analysts 5 Anil Shah (Insightful Investments), Darshil Jhaveri (Crown Capital), Navin Agrawal (SKP Securities), Praveen Sharma (Individual Investor), Shreya Chatterjee (Ageless Capital)
Financials & KPIs
| Metric | Reported | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (9M FY26) | ₹1,923 crores | +5.4% YoY; Growth driven by premium products and specialty segment performance. |
| Revenue (Q3 FY26) | ₹634 crores | Sequential improvement; however, subdued by seasonal weather impacting beer bottle demand. |
| EBITDA (9M FY26) | ₹484 crores | -2.6% YoY; Lower than ₹497 crores in 9M FY25 due to pricing adjustments. |
| PAT (Q3 FY26) | ₹71 crores | Includes ₹5.09 crore exceptional item for labor code implementation impact. |
| Net Bank Debt | ₹389 crores | Slight increase due to inventory build-up; company prepaid remaining ECB loan in Dec 2025. |
| EBITDA Margin | 24.3% (Q3) | Management maintains annual guidance of 24% - 25% excluding non-operating income. |
| Glass Capacity | 1,900 TPD | Debottlenecking completed ahead of schedule (original target March 2026). |
| Capacity Utilization | 95% / 85% | 95% for Commercial Glass; 85% for Specialty Glass. |
Geographic & Segment Commentary
- Commercial Container Glass: Volume grew ~10% QoQ but declined 2% YoY due to extended rains and extreme winters affecting beer consumption. Realizations decreased by ₹1,200 per ton YoY following formula-based pricing adjustments linked to lower raw material costs.
- Specialty Glass Business: Sales volume increased 13% YoY with realizations up ₹6,800 per ton YoY. Management noted steady demand from pharmaceutical, cosmetic, and premium beverage sectors, targeting 85% utilization.
- International Markets: Management acknowledged a 1% global contraction in alcohol demand and US tariff impacts but remains confident in India’s low per capita consumption (2 liters vs 100+ liters in Europe) as a growth driver.
Company-Specific & Strategic Commentary
- Capacity Expansion: The 200 TPD specialty glass expansion is on track for March 2026 completion; the 500 TPD Greenfield facility in Madhya Pradesh is scheduled for March 2027 to increase total capacity by 25%.
- Aluminum Beverage Cans: Strategic entry is on schedule with equipment procurement for 1.6 billion annual can capacity in final stages; land identification by government is underway.
- Retail/OEM Integration: Company is evolving an end-to-end service model (e.g., filled perfume bottles) for brand owners, outsourcing filling while supplying core glass products to capture higher-value OEM relationships.
- Debt Management: Total CAPEX for Greenfields estimated at ₹1,100–₹1,200 crores in FY27; existing long-term debt is ₹220 crores, largely to be paid off using internal accruals of ₹600+ crore annual EBITDA.
Guidance & Outlook
| Metric | Guidance / Outlook | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Volume Growth | 8% - 10% (FY26) | Driven by recovery in Q4 and commissioned debottlenecking capacity. |
| EBITDA Margin | 24% - 25% | Sustainable range over 12-18 months based on premium mix and cost discipline. |
| Revenue Growth | 15% - 17% (FY28) | Sharp uptick expected following commissioning of MP Greenfield plant in March 2027. |
Risks & Constraints
| Risk | Context |
|---|---|
| Seasonality & Weather | Extended rains and extreme winters significantly impacted Q3 beer bottle volumes; recovery is expected in Q4 but remains a variable. |
| Raw Material Volatility | Soda ash and furnace oil prices are subject to global geopolitical shifts, though currently stable; formula-based pricing protects margins only on a lag. |
| Leverage/Dilution | Heavy CAPEX cycle (₹1.2k Cr) may require equity dilution (QIP); management is balancing dilution risk against leverage. |
Q&A Highlights
Demand Outlook
- Question: What caused the Q3 revenue miss relative to the 8-10% growth guidance? (Anil Shah)
- Answer: Extreme winters and flooding subdued beer demand; this is a “postponement” rather than a loss, with Q4 expected to normalize (Rajesh Khosla).
Retail Strategy
- Question: Does the entry into retail mean brand building and high marketing spend? (Anil Shah)
- Answer: No. It is an OEM service providing filled products (diffusers/perfumes) to brand owners to secure glass supply contracts and bypass contract manufacturers (Rajesh Khosla).
Financial Support & Dilution
- Question: Why consider a QIP when the stock price has fallen 25-30%? (Praveen Sharma)
- Answer: The resolution is “enabling.” Management will only dilute if market conditions are right; current EBITDA of ₹600Cr can support debt-to-EBITDA of ~2x even without equity (Sandeep Sikka).
Operational Efficiency
- Question: What is the EBITDA per ton outlook? (Shreya Chatterjee)
- Answer: Aiming for ₹9,500–₹10,500 per ton for commercial glass; specialty glass margins are higher, currently around 25-26% (Sandeep Sikka).
Key Takeaway
AGI Greenpac delivered a resilient 9M FY26 with revenues of ₹1,923 crores (+5.4% YoY), despite Q3 beer segment headwinds caused by adverse weather. Strategically, the company is shifting toward high-margin specialty glass (utilization 85%) and value-added OEM services to secure direct relationships with brand owners. Completion of the 1,900 TPD debottlenecking ahead of schedule provides immediate volume support, while the ₹1,200 crore investment cycle for a 500 TPD Greenfield glass plant and 1.6 billion can facility targets a 15-17% revenue jump by FY28. While a potential QIP remains under consideration for funding, management emphasizes that strong internal accruals and stable 24-25% EBITDA margins provide significant leverage headroom. The company remains a dominant play on India’s rising premium packaging demand, with significant capacity additions poised to hit the market in Q4 FY27.
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