Summary
Alpex Solar Limited - Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call Summary Tuesday, February 10, 2026, 04:00 p.m. IST
Event Participants
Executives 6 Aditya Sehgal (CEO), Ashwani Sehgal (MD), L.K. Dhamija (VP Finance), Sakshi Tomar (CS), Udaya Sehgal (CFO), Vipin Sehgal (Director)
Analysts 8 Abhi Sehgal (Singularity), Apoorva Bandi (Whitestone PMS), Bhavya Shah (3A Financial Services), Chitresh Lunawar (Line Venture), Dhananjay Mishra (Sunidhi Securities), Ishima Bansal (Alpha AIF), Maitree S. (Sapphire Capital), Shashank Jha (SB Capital)
Financials & KPIs
| Metric | Reported | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹648 crores | +246.5% YoY; Recorded highest-ever quarterly turnover driven by capacity expansion and strong demand. |
| EBITDA | ₹91 crores | +145.9% YoY; Strong growth in absolute terms, though margins saw a slight seasonal dip. |
| EBITDA Margin | 14.03% | -570 bps YoY; Squeezed by higher input costs (silver, copper) and stagnant realization during the period. |
| Profit After Tax (PAT) | ₹54 crores | +134.8% YoY; Highest-ever quarterly PAT; margins impacted by higher interest costs and input prices. |
| PAT Margin | 8.37% | -390 bps YoY; Impacted by capital expenditure funded through EBITDA and increased input costs. |
| Order Book | ₹1,900 crores | Strong visibility for next 6-7 months; management targets ₹3,000+ crores revenue for FY26. |
| Module Capacity | 3.6 GW | Expanding from initial single location to six locations; 75-80% current utilization. |
| Cell Capacity (Planned) | 2.2 GW | Phased rollout: 1.4 GW (Phase 1) and 0.8 GW (Phase 2) using Topcon G12R technology. |
| Aluminum Frame Capacity | 12,000 tons | Strategic backward integration; management expects ₹60 crore profit contribution next year. |
Geographic & Segment Commentary
- Domestic Solar Market: Massive growth driven by Government of India’s Atmanirbhar Mission and ALMM/ALCM/ALWM policies. Management notes the C&I (Commercial & Industrial) segment is opening up rapidly, providing significant demand tailwinds for integrated players.
- Export Opportunity: Currently not exporting, but eyeing the US market following the removal of reciprocal tariffs. Company expects a competitive edge in exports due to high domestic content (80% of module value chain manufactured in-house).
- Solar EPC & IPP: Diversifying into the complete value chain with 115 MW of EPC business and 100 MW of Independent Power Plants (IPP) planned by the end of FY2027.
Company-Specific & Strategic Commentary
- Backward Integration: Transitioning from a “plain vanilla” module manufacturer to an integrated player with cell and aluminum frame production to insulate margins.
- Cell Technology (G12R Topcon): Directly adopting the latest G12R size technology to ensure cost competitiveness; management claims this will be one of India’s most efficient lines.
- Silver Substitution: Exploring technological advancements to substitute silver with copper composites in cell manufacturing to mitigate high silver price volatility.
- Aluminum Frame Independence: First-mover advantage in in-house frame manufacturing (75-80% utilization) provides design freedom and protection against non-tariff barriers on imports.
- Consolidated Manufacturing: Expanding footprint to 1 million square feet across 7 functional units to support the 3.6 GW module target.
Guidance & Outlook
| Metric | Guidance / Outlook | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹3,000 crores (FY26) | Based on 2x growth guidance over FY25; current 9M performance already exceeded initial targets. |
| Cell Production | Q1 FY2027 Start | Phase 1 (1.4 GW) commissioning expected early next fiscal; 90-95% utilization targeted within 45 days of start. |
| EBITDA Margins | 25-26% (Cell Segment) | Management expects significant margin expansion once the captive cell manufacturing line becomes operational. |
| Realization | ₹18.5 - ₹19.0 per Watt | Prices currently strengthening due to rising input costs and withdrawal of Chinese export benefits. |
Risks & Constraints
| Risk | Context |
|---|---|
| Input Cost Volatility | Silver and copper prices are rising significantly; silver currently accounts for ~40% of cell costs, though mitigation through tech substitution is planned. |
| Financing Costs | Recent NCD issuance at 13-14% was noted as expensive due to timing and conservative banking limits for rapid expansion. |
| Technology Obsolescence | The shift from Mono-PERC to Topcon is rapid; management warns that PERC capacities may become obsolete within 6-9 months. |
| Supply-Demand Mismatch | Rapidly growing domestic module capacity (nameplate) may lead to competition, though management believes cell-integrated players remain safe. |
Q&A Highlights
Order Book & Visibility
- Question: How does the order book provide visibility compared to peers? (Shashank Jha)
- Answer: Current book of ₹1,900 crores is sufficient to meet the ₹3,000 crore FY26 target. Management prefers smaller, repetitive orders (₹200-300 crores) with pass-through mechanisms over massive long-term contracts to manage price volatility (Ashwani Sehgal).
Margin Expansion from Cells
- Question: What are the expected EBITDA/PAT margins once cell manufacturing starts? (Soumil Shah)
- Answer: Industry peers enjoy 25-26% PAT margins on cells. Alpex expects to be at the higher end due to the efficient G12R size and in-house silver/copper tech within the group (Ashwani Sehgal).
Aluminum Frame Strategy
- Question: Why invest in frames instead of more cell capacity? (Abhi Sehgal)
- Answer: It provides manufacturing freedom for custom modules and protects against supply bottlenecks. The investment is small but yields high margins (~₹60 crores profit expected) and acts as a barrier against competitors without in-house frames (Ashwani Sehgal).
Capex Funding
- Question: How will the ₹825 crore cell project be funded? (Dhananjay Mishra)
- Answer: ₹400 crores via term loans and ₹425 crores through internal accruals and previous equity raises. No plans to return to capital markets for further equity (L.K. Dhamija/Ashwani Sehgal).
Key Takeaway
Alpex Solar delivered a record-breaking Q3 FY26, with revenue growing 246% YoY to ₹648 crores and 9M FY26 revenue reaching ₹1,551 crores, effectively doubling its previous annual run rate. The company is aggressively transitioning from a module assembler to a vertically integrated solar giant, with a 2.2 GW Topcon G12R cell facility and a 12,000-ton aluminum frame plant nearing full operational status. Strategically, Alpex is focusing on “smart” backward integration to insulate EBITDA margins from rising silver and copper costs, while targeting a revenue of over ₹3,000 crores for FY26. While margins saw a temporary compression due to high input costs and expansion-related expenses, the management expects a significant margin reset upwards once captive cell production commences in Q1 FY27. Investors should monitor the successful commissioning of the cell line and the volatility in global silver prices as key variables for the next fiscal year.
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