Summary
Ashapura Minechem Limited - Q3 FY 2026 Earnings Call Summary Wednesday, February 11, 2026, 4:00 PM
Event Participants
Executives 4 Ashish Desai (CFO), Chetan Shah (Promoter Director), Manan Shah (Promoter Group), Sachin Polke (President, Corporate Affairs)
Analysts 10 Amitesh Mandowara, CA; Daisy Barocha; Dhananjai Bagrodia; Kamlesh Bagrodia; Krish; Kush Bafna; Naitik Mohata; Nalin Shah; Pushkar Jain; Vardhaman Sancheti
Financials & KPIs
| Metric | Reported | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Consolidated) | ₹960.4 crores | +0.8% QoQ, +50% YoY for 9M FY26; driven by Guinea consistency despite monsoon headwinds. |
| EBITDA | ₹143 crores | +8.3% QoQ; margins improved to 14.9% from 13.9% due to lower demurrage and cost efficiencies. |
| PBT (before exceptional) | ₹89.31 crores | +10% QoQ; margin at 9.3%. 9M PBT stood at ₹303 crores, +37% YoY. |
| Net Profit (9M FY26) | Not Explicitly Stated | EPS for 9M FY26 reported at ₹30.43. Q3 EPS at ₹8.82. |
| Bauxite Volume (Guinea) | 1.39 million tons | Missed internal targets due to prolonged monsoon; Q4 expected to be a record quarter. |
| Bauxite Realization | ~$70/ton (CIF) | Average Q3 realization; management noted recent spot prices corrected to ~$60/ton in Feb. |
| EBITDA per ton (Guinea) | ~$10.5 | Achieved despite lower pricing; aided by faster vessel turnaround and new logistics tie-ups. |
| Exceptional Item | ₹4.56 crores | One-time impact in Q3 due to new labor code revising employee benefit computations. |
Geographic & Segment Commentary
- Guinea (Bauxite & Iron Ore): Contributed 76% of Q3 revenue. Despite a 1.39 million ton volume in Q3 being below expectations due to monsoons, the segment saw improved margins through a partnership with China Railway for logistics. Iron ore trials are progressing well with a local beneficiation plant, targeting medium-grade (45-50% Fe) ore upgradable to 60%+ Fe.
- India (Industrial Minerals): Contributed 24.2% of Q3 revenue. Performance faced headwinds from raw material volatility and a shift toward lower-margin bulk products. Management remains focused on value-added products and import substitutes for 10 distinct industries (paints, paper, steel, etc.) to drive medium-term profitability.
Company-Specific & Strategic Commentary
- Logistics Optimization: The company has shifted to CQD (Customary Quick Despatch) terms with shipping partners to eliminate demurrage risks. A long-term 12-month freight contract provides rates below the market index, covering a significant portion of FY27 volumes.
- Resource Quality: Management highlighted that one of their active Guinea mines produces high-grade bauxite that commands a $1.00 to $2.50 per ton premium over the standard index, helping mitigate price drops.
- Strategic Partnerships: A new mining and logistics tie-up with China Railway has been instrumental in stabilizing the cost structure and improving operational efficiency in Guinea.
Guidance & Outlook
| Metric | Guidance / Outlook | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Bauxite Volume | 15 million tons by FY28 | Management targets linear growth from ~3.5M tons (FY25) to 15M tons (FY28). |
| FY27 Volume Outlook | ~11.5 - 12 million tons | Directional target for next fiscal as the company ramps up execution post-monsoon. |
| EBITDA Margin | 40-50% moderation per ton | Anticipated moderation in per-ton EBITDA due to $60/ton spot prices, to be offset by higher volumes. |
| Capex | 20-25% remaining | Majority of Guinea capex is complete; future spending will be funded via internal accruals. |
Risks & Constraints
| Risk | Context |
|---|---|
| Bauxite Price Volatility | Recent correction to $60/ton due to resumed mines in Guinea and Chinese smelting caps. Management views $52/ton as the economic floor for viability. |
| Concentration Risk | Nearly 100% of bauxite exports are currently directed to China. Management is exploring potential markets in the Middle East, India, and North America. |
| Related Party Exposure | ~71% of investments/advances involve related parties. Management justifies this as necessary for the India-UAE-Guinea holding and procurement structure. |
Q&A Highlights
Bauxite Pricing & Floor
- Question: What is the floor price where you would reconsider production? (Vardhaman Sancheti)
- Answer: Below $52/ton, business viability becomes a concern. However, proximity of certain mines to the port and high-grade premiums provide a cushion (Chetan Shah).
Demurrage & Margins
- Question: How did EBITDA improve while prices fell? (Naitik Mohata)
- Answer: 20-30% of EBITDA improvement came from faster vessel turnaround. New CQD shipping terms eliminate future demurrage costs (Manan Shah/Ashish Desai).
Iron Ore Outlook
- Question: What is the status of the iron ore business in Guinea? (Pushkar Jain)
- Answer: Trial shipments to a local beneficiation plant are successful. The ore is 45-50% Fe but easily upgradable to 60%+. Specific volume guidance will be provided at year-end (Manan Shah).
Chinese Demand
- Question: Is China’s 45MT smelting cap a structural headwind? (Daisy Barocha)
- Answer: While it limits China’s domestic growth, inventory at Chinese ports is at an all-time low. We expect restocking after the Spring Festival and see smelter growth moving to low-power-cost regions like the Middle East (Chetan Shah).
Key Takeaway
Ashapura Minechem delivered a resilient Q3 FY26, with consolidated revenue reaching ₹960.4 crores and EBITDA margins improving to 14.9% despite missing volume targets in Guinea due to weather. The company successfully mitigated a decline in spot bauxite prices (~$60/ton) by reducing demurrage and leveraging a strategic logistics tie-up with China Railway. While management anticipates a 40-50% moderation in per-ton EBITDA due to market price cooling, they remain committed to a linear ramp-up toward a 15 million ton volume target by FY28. Growth is expected to be supplemented by the nascent iron ore business and value-added product launches in India. Investors should monitor bauxite price stabilization post-Chinese New Year and the company’s ability to maintain its $52/ton economic floor. Ashapura enters Q4 FY26 expecting record quarterly volumes as monsoon impacts subside.
Want more insights like this?
Subscribe to get deep dives delivered to your inbox.
More Earnings Summaries
Explore more Q3 FY26 earnings call analyses: