Summary
Indian Energy Exchange Limited - Q3 FY 2026 Earnings Call Summary Friday, January 30, 2026, 5:00 PM IST
Event Participants
Executives 6 Aditya Wali, Amit Kumar, Aparna Garg, Rohit Bajaj, Satyanarayan Goel, Vineet Harlalka
Analysts 6 Abhir Pandit, Devesh Agarwal, Ketan Jain, Pranav Jain, Rohan Gheewala, Sumit Kishore
Financials & KPIs
| Metric | Reported | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity Trading Volume | 34.1 billion units | +12% YoY; Driven by improved supply liquidity and low market prices despite flat national demand. |
| Total Revenue | ₹183.1 crores | +14% YoY; Growth supported by robust electricity volumes and higher annual member fees. |
| Profit After Tax (PAT) | ₹119.1 crores | +11% YoY; Margin stability maintained despite lower REC volumes. |
| RTM Volume | 13.0 billion units | +36% YoY; Contributes 40% of total electricity volume, aiding RE integration. |
| Green Market Volume | 3.0 billion units | +7.2% YoY; Growth supported by Discoms meeting RPO obligations. |
| REC Traded Volume | 18.6 lakh units | -31% YoY; Decline due to RPO compliance extension and regulatory uncertainty. |
| IGX Gas Volume | 17.5 million MMBtu | +8% YoY; Driven by domestic production and heightened power demand. |
| IGX Profit After Tax | ₹8.8 crores | +6% YoY; 9M FY26 PAT grew 47.9% YoY to ₹32.5 crores. |
| Cash & Equivalents | ₹1,500 crores | Included ₹1,200 crores in shareholder funds as of Dec 31, 2025. |
Geographic & Segment Commentary
- Electricity Market: Volume grew 12% YoY to 34.1 BU in Q3, with 9M volumes reaching 102 BU (+14.3% YoY). Growth was primarily driven by the Real-Time Market (RTM) and optimization opportunities for Discoms as DAM prices averaged ₹3.22/unit (down 13.2%).
- Gas Exchange (IGX): IGX now represents 3% of India’s total gas consumption and 20% of the spot market. It expanded delivery points to 23 and achieved a 46% volume growth for 9M FY26, benefiting from lower global gas prices.
- International Carbon Exchange (ICX): Significant traction in I-RECs with 51 lakh certificates issued in Q3 (+219% YoY). 9M revenue stood at ₹5.5 crores as the segment prepares for the transition to a mandatory carbon market.
Company-Specific & Strategic Commentary
- Market Coupling Update: Management concluded hearings at APTEL regarding the CERC market coupling order. IEX maintains that the due process of regulation-making must be followed, including transparency and public consultation, before any potential implementation.
- BESS & Merchant Storage: IEX witnessed its first merchant Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) trades. New petitions have been filed for “Peak DAM” and “Peak RTM” segments to facilitate trading during high-demand hours and incentivize storage capacity.
- VPPA Implementation: CERC issued final guidelines for Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (VPPAs). This allows RE generators to sell the electricity component on exchanges while transferring green attributes, potentially adding up to 10,000 MW of liquidity.
- New Diversification: IEX is exploring the establishment of India’s first Coal Exchange following revised draft rules from the Ministry of Coal. Additionally, an IPO for IGX is planned for the current year to meet regulatory shareholding norms.
Guidance & Outlook
| Metric | Guidance / Outlook | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity Volume Growth | 15% - 20% | Expected to track long-term demand growth as power consumption nears 2,500 BU by 2032. |
| Gas Volume Growth | 25% - 30% | Anticipated over next 4-5 years driven by declining gas prices and policy tailwinds. |
| IGX IPO | FY 2026 | Planned to reduce IEX holding from 47.5% to 25% per regulatory requirements. |
| Carbon Market Launch | FY 2027 - FY 2028 | Dependent on finalization of CCTS scheme regulations and CERC framework. |
Risks & Constraints
| Risk | Context |
|---|---|
| Regulatory Changes | Implementation of market coupling remains a primary watchpoint; however, management believes the process will be lengthy due to required draft regulations. |
| REC Demand Volatility | The proposal allowing entities to deposit funds with the government instead of buying RECs (1.05% of avg. price) may dampen future REC trading volumes. |
| Weather Dependence | 2025 saw flat demand due to a prolonged monsoon reducing agricultural and cooling loads; normal weather is critical for hitting 5-6% demand growth. |
Q&A Highlights
Market Coupling Status
- Question: What is the timeline and strategy if the APTEL verdict is unfavorable? (Ketan Jain)
- Answer: A verdict is expected within a month. Even if unfavorable, the CERC must still issue draft regulations, invite public comments, and provide a statement of reasons, ensuring multiple stages for IEX to express views (S. Goel).
Power Demand vs. Exchange Volume
- Question: Why did December volume growth slow to 3% despite better demand? (Sumit Kishore)
- Answer: January volumes have rebounded to 18-19% growth. While flat national demand in 2025 (due to monsoon) limited growth, low exchange prices created optimization opportunities for Discoms to replace costlier PPA power (S. Goel).
Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (VPPAs)
- Question: How much capacity can the exchange absorb from VPPAs? (Sumit Kishore)
- Answer: Currently, VPPAs on the exchange are under 1,000 MW. The market has liquidity to absorb up to 10,000 MW between RTM and DAM without crashing prices, as thermal generators provide a price floor at their variable cost (R. Bajaj).
REC Market Weakness
- Question: Why are REC volumes subdued despite higher RPOs? (Sumit Kishore)
- Answer: Compliance deadlines were extended to March 31, shifting buying to Q4. Furthermore, a CERC discussion paper proposing a “penalty deposit” instead of REC purchase has caused temporary buyer hesitation (S. Goel).
Key Takeaway
IEX delivered a resilient performance in Q3 FY26, with electricity volumes growing 12% YoY despite flat national power demand caused by an extended monsoon. The company reported a PAT of ₹119.1 crores, up 11% YoY, supported by a 36% jump in Real-Time Market volumes which now comprise 40% of the mix. Strategically, IEX is diversifying through the Gas Exchange (IGX), which saw 46% volume growth in 9M FY26, and the Carbon Exchange (ICX). Management remains focused on navigating the market coupling regulatory process, asserting that any implementation requires a lengthy transparent regulation-making cycle. With the introduction of merchant BESS trades and VPPAs, IEX is positioning itself as a central platform for India’s energy transition. The company expects to maintain 15-20% long-term volume growth as national demand normalizes and new storage-linked products are launched.
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