Summary
Lodha Developers Limited - Q3 FY 2026 Earnings Call Summary Thursday, January 29, 2026 4:00 PM IST
Event Participants
Executives 6 Aayush Raghuvanshi, Abhishek Lodha, Chintan Parikh, Sanjay Chauhan, Shaishav Dharia, Sushil Kumar Modi
Analysts 7 Abhinav Sinha, Akash Gupta, Gaurav Khandelwal, Kunal Tayal, Murtuza Arsiwala, Parikshit Kandpal, Parvez Qazi
Financials & KPIs
| Metric | Reported | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-sales | ₹5,600 crores | +25% YoY; best-ever quarterly performance, crossing ₹5,000 crores for the first time. |
| Collections | ₹3,560 crores | -17% YoY; decline due to high base from land sales in Q3FY25 and environmental clearance delays. |
| Revenue from Operations | ₹4,660 crores | +29% YoY; growth excludes lumpy land sale impacts from the previous year. |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ₹1,490 crores | +23% YoY; modest contribution from land sales reflects strong underlying project profitability. |
| Embedded EBITDA Margin | 32% | Robust margins maintained despite lower land-sale contribution. |
| Pro-forma PAT | ₹1,200 crores | Resulting in a PAT margin of ~21%. |
| Net Debt | ₹6,170 crores | Net debt to equity at 0.28x; remains well below the management ceiling of 0.5x. |
| Average Cost of Funds | 7.9% | -10 bps QoQ; management continues to optimize borrowing costs. |
| ROE (TTM) | ~20% | Consistent with the company’s medium-term strategic outlook. |
| Business Development (GDV) | ₹34,000 crores | Quarterly addition; YTD total reaches ~₹60,000 crores, surpassing annual targets. |
Geographic & Segment Commentary
- Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR): Achieved strong conversion rates despite industry-wide volume pressures; management noted a focus on premiumization in South Central Mumbai where major launches were concentrated.
- Bangalore: Successfully transitioned from “pilot” to “growth” phase; management guides for full-year sales to exceed ₹2,500 crores.
- NCR (National Capital Region): Formally entered the “pilot” phase with two signed projects in Delhi/Gurgaon/Noida totaling ₹3,300 crores GDV; sales expected to commence within 12 months.
- Palava & Upper Thane: Significant infrastructure tailwinds expected with the Palava-Airoli Freeway and Navi Mumbai Airport; township sales are being “premiumized,” with high-end segments expected to reach 50% of the mix by 2030.
Company-Specific & Strategic Commentary
- Data Center Strategy: Earmarked 400 acres in Palava for a 3GW AI-ready Data Center Park with two anchor tenants (AWS and STT); signed an MoU with Maharashtra for fiscal benefits, potentially increasing land value to ₹50–₹60 crores per acre.
- Price Growth Discipline: Delivered 4% price growth YTD with a full-year target of 5-6%; strategy remains to keep price hikes below wage growth to maintain affordability.
- Front-loaded Business Development: With a 5-year pipeline approaching ₹2 lakh crores in GDV, management plans to moderate land acquisition spending over the next 24 months to prioritize cash generation and debt reduction.
- Revenue Recognition: Continuing transition to the percentage-of-completion (POCM) methodology; full transition expected within the next 12 months.
Guidance & Outlook
| Metric | Guidance / Outlook | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| FY26 Pre-sales | ₹21,000 crores | On track; 9M performance has already achieved 70% of the target. |
| Price Growth | 5% - 6% for FY26 | Intentional moderation to ensure long-term sustainability and end-user demand. |
| Operating Cash Flow (OCF) | ~₹7,000 crores | Revised from ₹7,700 crores due to 4-6 month delays from environmental clearance issues. |
| Launch Pipeline | >₹12,000 crores | Planned for Q4 FY26 to sustain momentum. |
Risks & Constraints
| Risk | Context |
|---|---|
| Environmental Clearances | Regulatory delays earlier in the year stalled construction at certain locations, impacting 9M collections; issues resolved in mid-November. |
| Industry Volume Decline | Moderation noted in the <₹75 lakh affordable housing segment industry-wide; Lodha mitigating this by pivoting toward premium and luxury segments. |
| Execution Scalability | Rapid ramp-up across four cities requires robust vendor management and labor stability; management focusing on tiered contractor relationships to prevent delays. |
Q&A Highlights
Operations and Collections
- Question: What is driving the expected pickup in collections? (Puneet Gulati)
- Answer: Resolution of environmental clearance issues from mid-November allows for faster construction and milestone-based billing; Q4 construction spend is targeted at ₹1,200 crores (Abhishek Lodha).
Market Demand and Competition
- Question: Are you seeing signs of oversupply in Mumbai due to redevelopment? (Akash Gupta)
- Answer: While pockets of oversupply exist, brand strength and execution speed ensure steady footfalls and conversion for Lodha-branded products (Abhishek Lodha).
Data Center Monetization
- Question: Will you build data centers speculatively? (Abhinav Sinha)
- Answer: No, the focus is on build-to-suit (BTS) power shells for specific clients; costs are approximately ₹3 million per megawatt including land (Shaishav Dharia/Abhishek Lodha).
Profitability and Land Costs
- Question: Will newer projects have lower margins as land prices remain high? (Kunal Tayal)
- Answer: Management remains disciplined on underwriting; believe scale and brand premium allow them to maintain target returns even if land markets are competitive (Abhishek Lodha).
Key Takeaway
Lodha Developers delivered a record-breaking Q3 FY26 with pre-sales of ₹5,600 crores (up 25% YoY), driven by strong brand preference and strategic launches in South Central Mumbai. Despite a temporary 17% dip in collections due to historical environmental clearance bottlenecks—now resolved—the company maintained a healthy 32% embedded EBITDA margin and a net debt to equity ratio of 0.28x. Strategically, the firm has surpassed its full-year business devlopment goals, adding ₹60,000 crores in GDV, and is pivoting toward a “cash-generation” phase by moderating future land spend. Entry into the NCR pilot phase and the aggressive scaling of the 3GW Palava Data Center Park highlight a shift toward diversified, high-value asset monetization. Management remains confident in achieving its ₹21,000 crore annual sales target while maintaining 20% ROE, supported by a massive ₹2 lakh crore five-year development pipeline.
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